Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
EURUSD has broken and closed above the 0.786 retracement, the 100 daily moving average and above the Ichimoku cloud.
At first, EURUSD was rejected at the key strong resistance at around 1.0885—it did spike a bit above though, but RSI closed yesterday above the 60 threshold confirming EURUSD is now in a bullish trend indicating EURUSD is likely to move higher in the coming days or weeks.
Another break above 1.0885 is likely to fuel a rally to 1.0950-1.0980.
Very short-term EURUSD could slide back to around 1.0825 before buyers probably come back trying to push EURUSD above 1.0885.
GBPUSD broke yesterday above the 0.786 retracement at 1.2622 to close above all moving averages.
GBPUSD is trading just below key resistance at around 1.2710 and has not yet closed above the cloud.
However, RSI closed above the 60 threshold, i.e., now showing positive sentiment supporting GBPUSD to break higher. A break above 1.2710 and a close above the cloud will pave the road higher towards 1.28, possibly to 1.29.
2024: The wasted year
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.